So… it's been a minute.

Seven years, to be exact. My last post was 2019. In internet years that's roughly three lifetimes, two bear markets, a pandemic, a war, and at least four "this is the top" calls that weren't. I could blame life, work, the algorithm — honestly all of the above. Let's just say the blogging went quiet and the trading never did.

Something hit me over the head recently and here we are. And the timing? Actually pretty interesting. Because right now, the tide is going out.

While I was away from the blog I wasn't sitting still. I've spent a good chunk of time building out a rules-based system that watches the market across five different dimensions and tells me, at any given moment, how much risk I should be carrying.

The core idea is this: rather than the old "all in or all cash" mentality — which, let's be honest, is how a lot of us used to think about it — the model adjusts exposure on a sliding scale. As conditions deteriorate, it gradually dials risk down. As things improve, it dials back up. No dramatic calls. No gut feelings. Just a number that moves and a portfolio that follows it.

Right now, that number is telling me to be careful.

One of the five things the model watches is breadth — and it's the one I've always trusted most. Are the troops following the generals? Is the average stock participating, or are a handful of big names doing all the heavy lifting while everything else quietly struggles underneath?

Right now it's the latter. Breadth has recovered a bit this week as the market bounced — the S&P clawed back about 1.3% from Friday's close — but the underlying picture isn't convincing. Equal-weight is lagging cap-weight. New highs are thin. The advance/decline picture is better than it was at the March 3rd low, but we're not out of the woods.

When the tide goes out, breadth is usually the first thing to show it. And right now, it's showing it.

The model has been gradually reducing risk since early March — not all at once, but in steps. Two weeks ago we were fully deployed. Today we're carrying a meaningful cushion in short-term Treasuries while keeping equity exposure in the names and sectors that are still holding up.

Could the tide turn? Absolutely. There's a clear path back to a more aggressive posture if the right things happen. Right now, the data  says patience.

Thought I'd share, see you in another seven years.

How are your investments coming along? Amazing how time can widen your view. At this point, you should have enough data to see your net worth moving from the bottom left to the top right of your chart. Did you buy anything back in the 2009 declines? 2011? 2015?  December 2018? What's your plan for the next buying opportunity. Stockpiling cash now? Paying off those debts? Paying off the house? Things are good, take advantage of it. Get ahead of the game.

Are you designed for trading on a day, weekly, monthly or yearly basis, what works for you? Longer time frames can be more forgiving than shorter time frames. If your plan is to put 10% of your income in a mutual fund for the next 20 years, that's ok. It's a plan, you're doing better than 90% of the population out there.

Everyone wants to sell you the secret formula, chip away at your cash. Only you can figure out what works for you. Stop listening to the noise and figure out your plan, be patient, and execute. Be careful though, you might get what you plan for...

1. Lots of uncertainty about the market (crash -- won't crash, overbought, politics)
2. Economy looks pretty good, jobs are good.
3. Breadth signals have been all over the place depending on which ones you follow. Still my favorites: BPCOMPQ, NASI, Indexes with 50 ma line.
4. Heading in to what is normally a volatile time for the market. Not looking for any big bets here….