Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

2/20/2011 – Weekend Research – Post Earnings Surprise

Below are Earnings Surprises since Jan 1, 2011 that were up 8% or greater on the day of earnings. You can take this list and drop it into Telechart. Sort by 5 day rate of change and look for stocks that have pulled back after their initial post earnings rally.

See the Earnings Thrust post from earlier this week on what a pullback would look like: http://patientfisherman.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-to-manage-earnings-thrust.html

Symbol Description Date %Surprise %Chg Earnings Day
RHB REHABCARE GROUP INC COM 2/8/2011 8 45.47
TDSC 3-D SYS CORP DEL COM NEW 2/17/2011 35 40.43
TBL TIMBERLAND CO CL A 2/17/2011 61 30.03
KND KINDRED HEALTHCARE INC COM 2/8/2011 23 28.34
ABMD ABIOMED INC COM 2/3/2011 78 21.64
REV REVLON INC CL A NEW 2/17/2011 196 21.45
ELOS SYNERON MEDICAL LTD ORD SHS 2/16/2011 700 20.72
SCHS SCHOOL SPECIALTY INC COM 2/17/2011 7 19.87
CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC INC COM 1/27/2011 3 18.81
ACAT ARCTIC CAT INC COM 1/27/2011 257 17.57
KNL KNOLL INC COM NEW 2/4/2011 18 16.7
PJC PIPER JAFFRAY COS COM 1/26/2011 102 16.28
RBN ROBBINS & MYERS INC COM 1/7/2011 33 15.9
IMN IMATION CORP COM 2/1/2011 633 15.05
GT GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBR CO COM 2/10/2011 300 14.31
EL LAUDER ESTEE COS INC CL A 2/3/2011 18 14.13
SSYS STRATASYS INC COM 2/9/2011 24 13.8
SBH SALLY BEAUTY HLDGS INC COM 2/3/2011 16 13.78
LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC COM 2/3/2011 70 13.31
LXK LEXMARK INTL NEW CL A 2/1/2011 15 13.23
MSTR MICROSTRATEGY INC CL A NEW 1/26/2011 72 12.91
FCFS FIRST CASH FINL SVCS INC COM 1/26/2011 9 12.64
PIKE PIKE ELEC CORP COM 2/8/2011 400 12.53
AET AETNA INC NEW COM 2/4/2011 2 12.47
DEST DESTINATION MATERNITY CORP C 1/27/2011 19 12.24
HAR HARMAN INTL INDS INC COM 2/3/2011 52 12.16
ARGN AMERIGON INC COM 2/17/2011 50 11.73
ENTG ENTEGRIS INC COM 2/1/2011 21 11.5
AN AUTONATION INC COM 2/3/2011 29 11.33
CAB CABELAS INC COM 2/17/2011 9 11.31
EAT BRINKER INTL INC COM 1/25/2011 19 11.3
NOR NORANDA ALUM HLDG CORP COM 2/16/2011 25 11.02
ESI ITT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES INC 1/20/2011 1 10.74
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC 2/9/2011 3 10.45
SIRO SIRONA DENTAL SYSTEMS INC CO 2/4/2011 19 10.45
AVID AVID TECHNOLOGY INC COM 2/4/2011 362 10.1
CFX COLFAX CORP COM 2/15/2011 18 10.05
FLWS 1 800 FLOWERS COM CL A 1/27/2011 24 9.8
HP HELMERICH & PAYNE INC COM 1/27/2011 15 9.52
STEL STELLARONE CORP COM 1/26/2011 11 9.51
AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP 2/1/2011 21 9.5
BCO BRINKS CO COM 2/3/2011 49 9.11
EVR EVERCORE PARTNERS INC CLASS 2/2/2011 13 8.87
ROK ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC COM 1/26/2011 18 8.86
SF STIFEL FINL CORP COM 2/15/2011 31 8.66
HS HEALTHSPRING INC COM 2/18/2011 14 8.62
GNTX GENTEX CORP COM 1/27/2011 4 8.48
SWK STANLEY BLACK & DECKER INC C 1/27/2011 14 8.47
NVMI NOVA MEASURING INSTRUMENTS L 2/15/2011 8 8.43
ARMH ARM HLDGS PLC SPONSORED ADR 2/1/2011 40 8.35
RL POLO RALPH LAUREN CORP CL A 2/9/2011 33 8.28
PTRY PANTRY INC COM 2/8/2011 24 8.19
HOG HARLEY DAVIDSON INC COM 1/25/2011 40 8.06
ORB ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP COM 2/17/2011 57 8.01
CY CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTOR CORP C 1/27/2011 4 7.99

How Trading Momentum Gives you an Edge - Part 1


Momentum is the ability of a stock to outperform against other stocks. It is a result of an expectation by market participants of a higher valuation of any given stock or group of stocks. This expectation can be valid or not valid (irrational exuberance). As momentum traders, we do not look at things like P/E ratios, we focus on whether a stock has momentum and if that momentum will continue.

Past research has proven that momentum does exist in the market. Refer to my research page located at: http://patientfisherman.blogspot.com/2010/09/research-papers-momentum.html

You can also read several books to get a thorough understanding on momentum and its inner workings:
  • How To Make Money in Stocks - William O’Neil
  • Smarter Investing in Any Economy - Michael Carr
  • Beat The Market - Invest By Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks To Sell - Charles Kirpatrick
Momentum can occur as a result of superior earnings, new sales agreements, supply shortages, earnings guidance, regulatory changes and any other event that can lead to the possiblity of increased earnings on any stock or group of stocks.

The Key to trading momentum, is to believe that momentum exists and stocks or group of stocks can outperform all others during certain time frames. We buy high and sell higher.

Momentum can occur on any time frame, 5 days, 1 month, 6 months or a year. Using Bluefin, we try to take advantage of momentum movements by focusing on groups of stocks with momentum, known as sectors.

Basically, we are looking for a relative strength calculation which measures the performance of price from today to some point in the past. You can then take this value and rank it against a set of stocks to find out which stocks outperform across the group.

In its most basic form relative strength can be calculated by
Price Today - Price X Months ago / Price X Months ago * 100

If you wanted calculations across multiple time frames in Telechart it would look like this:
100*(c-c21)/c21 for 1 month
100*(c-c126)/c126 for 6 month
100*(c-c252)/c252 for 12 month

In Bluefin, we use the MDT calculation created by Pradeep Bonde over at StockBee. We apply this formula to all stocks and sectors and then rank those stocks and sectors on various conditions to generate our Emerging 50 and Sector 50 watch lists.

By using momentum calcuations in Bluefin, we can keep our money in the best performing stocks, significantly outperforming the market indexes.

In the next article about momentum, I will walk you through setting up the relative strength calculations in Telechart and then cover some recent examples of momentum trades found in Bluefin.

97 Breakouts That Worked Over the Past 30 Days

Recently, over at the Stockbee site we had a discussion concerning people jumping from one method to the next. Stockbee published some findings on a Kirk Report study, which you can read: 3 Things you can learn from Charles Kirk

This piqued my curiosity so I decided to look back over the past 30 days (give or take a week or so on some stocks) and find every breakout that occurred using the StockBee MDT Break out. Whether you use an exhaustion method, trend based or N-Day Breakout entry signal, many of these would of appeared in your scan.

Hindsight is 20/20, so I attempted to find stocks that offered a reasonable buy opportunity. I reviewed over 2000 stocks with our standard liquidity filter applied: MINV3.1 > 1000. They were absent of heavy volume selling days prior to the breakout. All stocks were within 10% of their 6 month high. I've also left the time-frame at 6 months so you can get more perspective on the entire move. With that said, there are still a few ugly ducklings in the result set.

So, what's the point? Did you catch 20% of these? How about 80% of the "Mona Lisas". These are the stocks with a chart pattern that is such a work of art, you wonder how you could of possibly missed it? If you did not catch them, then why are you looking at other breakout signals? Why haven't you committed to mastering one? I'm right there with you if missed some of those perfect setups. I keeping asking myself "How did I miss that one?!".



































































































Stocks Mentioned in this article:
Acacia Research Corporation ACTG



American Oil & Gas Inc. AEZ


Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM


Align Technology, Inc. ALGN


Autoliv Inc. ALV


Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN


Aruba Networks, Inc. ARUN


Atmel Corporation ATML


Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) BIDU


Biovail Corporation (USA) BVF


BorgWarner Inc. BWA


Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY


Caterpillar Inc. CAT


Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation CDE


Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG


Cummins Inc. CMI


CNH Global N.V. (ADR) CNH


The Cooper Companies, Inc. COO


Corn Products International, Inc. CPO


salesforce.com, inc. CRM


CTC Media, Inc. CTCM


Citrix Systems, Inc. CTXS


Cytec Industries Inc. CYT


Daktronics, Inc. DAKT


Deere & Company DE


Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR


DemandTec, Inc. DMAN


Digital River, Inc. DRIV


Ebix, Inc. EBIX


Ecopetrol S.A. (ADR) EC


EXACT Sciences Corporation EXAS


Expedia, Inc. EXPE


Sourcefire, Inc. FIRE


Ferro Corporation FOE


Fossil, Inc. FOSL


Five Star Quality Care, Inc. FVE


Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (ADR) GGAL


Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. GMCR


General Communication, Inc. GNCMA


The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN


Craft Brewers Alliance, Inc. HOOK


HealthSpring, Inc HS


Homex Development Corp. (ADR) HXM


ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) IBN


Infinera Corp. INFN


Infosys Technologies Limited (ADR) INFY


Isilon Systems, Inc. ISLN


Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) IVN


JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) JASO


51job, Inc. (ADR) JOBS


Joy Global Inc. JOYG


LogMeIn, Inc. LOGM


Lubrizol Corporation LZ


Minefinders Corp. Ltd. (USA) MFN


MIPS Technologies, Inc. MIPS


The Mosaic Company MOS


Netflix, Inc. NFLX


Nelnet, Inc. NNI


Newpark Resources, Inc. NR


NetApp Inc. NTAP


NxStage Medical, Inc. NXTM


Netezza Corporation NZ


OSI Systems, Inc. OSIS


Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) PAAS


VeriFone Systems, Inc. PAY


priceline.com Incorporated PCLN


Penn Virginia Resource Partners L P PVR


Rackspace Hosting, Inc. RAX


Radware Ltd. RDWR


RPC, Inc. RES


Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Inc RQI


Riverbed Technology, Inc. RVBD


Banco Santander-Chile (ADR) SAN


Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. SBH


Sycamore Networks, Inc. SCMR


COMSCORE, Inc. SCOR


SINA Corporation (USA) SINA


Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) SLW


Sohu.com Inc. SOHU


ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) SOL


Spreadtrum Communications, Inc. SPRD


Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) SQM


Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. SVNT


SAVVIS, Inc. SVVS


Skyworks Solutions, Inc. SWKS


TransGlobe Energy Corporation (USA) TGA


Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (ADR) TKC


The Timken Company TKR


Terremark Worldwide, Inc. TMRK


Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. (US) TRE


Tata Motors Limited (ADR) TTM


Travelzoo Inc. TZOO


ValueClick, Inc. VCLK


VirnetX Holding Corporation VHC


VMware, Inc. VMW


WABCO Holdings Inc. WBC


Warner Chilcott Plc WCRX


Xyratex Ltd. XRTX


Ixia XXIA