So… it's been a minute.

Seven years, to be exact. My last post was 2019. In internet years that's roughly three lifetimes, two bear markets, a pandemic, a war, and at least four "this is the top" calls that weren't. I could blame life, work, the algorithm — honestly all of the above. Let's just say the blogging went quiet and the trading never did.

Something hit me over the head recently and here we are. And the timing? Actually pretty interesting. Because right now, the tide is going out.

While I was away from the blog I wasn't sitting still. I've spent a good chunk of time building out a rules-based system that watches the market across five different dimensions and tells me, at any given moment, how much risk I should be carrying.

The core idea is this: rather than the old "all in or all cash" mentality — which, let's be honest, is how a lot of us used to think about it — the model adjusts exposure on a sliding scale. As conditions deteriorate, it gradually dials risk down. As things improve, it dials back up. No dramatic calls. No gut feelings. Just a number that moves and a portfolio that follows it.

Right now, that number is telling me to be careful.

One of the five things the model watches is breadth — and it's the one I've always trusted most. Are the troops following the generals? Is the average stock participating, or are a handful of big names doing all the heavy lifting while everything else quietly struggles underneath?

Right now it's the latter. Breadth has recovered a bit this week as the market bounced — the S&P clawed back about 1.3% from Friday's close — but the underlying picture isn't convincing. Equal-weight is lagging cap-weight. New highs are thin. The advance/decline picture is better than it was at the March 3rd low, but we're not out of the woods.

When the tide goes out, breadth is usually the first thing to show it. And right now, it's showing it.

The model has been gradually reducing risk since early March — not all at once, but in steps. Two weeks ago we were fully deployed. Today we're carrying a meaningful cushion in short-term Treasuries while keeping equity exposure in the names and sectors that are still holding up.

Could the tide turn? Absolutely. There's a clear path back to a more aggressive posture if the right things happen. Right now, the data  says patience.

Thought I'd share, see you in another seven years.